Monday, July 25, 2016

Donald Trump is the farmer's friend (maybe)!


Donald Trump could be the best thing that has happened to farming in a long long time.  We have to take a moment to look at what his presidency would mean and how that would relate to the farming community.
The U.S, economy is a complex machine and I do not pretend to know everything about it.  I do know that NAFTA, GATT, and other trade treaties that we have with the world.  The language in these treaties is long a hard to wrap my mind around, but for the most part it boils down to trade with the world is good and they have largely been positive.
What happens when Trump takes office?
When Trump takes office, he will bring those jobs which we are outsourcing to other countries, and those products that we are producing overseas back tot he U.S.  Great, right?  Well lets take a look at two things.
First we have to ask ourselves are we ready to take up the volume that the U.S. market would want versus what they are supplied. Would the current farming system be able to make up for the shortfalls in produce?
Second we have to ask if we are in a position to produce the diversity and the volume that we have gotten used to?  Would we be able to give up coconut milk or pay twice as much for a cup of coffee?
Third, assuming that farmers are able to make up for those shortfalls, those in conjunction with the decrease in labor that will no doubt be brought on by the crackdown on migrant labor similar to what happened in Georgia in 2011.
Let's look at the time frame.  Donald Trump says that within a day of taking office, he will work to repeal these measures that have been in place for 20 or more years. As I am writing this, it is the middle of summer and we are thinking about fall and the coming spring.  Would we do well to plant more in preparation for a scarcity?
The Floating Farm has to take it a step further.  A lot of what we are doing this year is centering on helping to get better food to more people.  Right now, that is an expensive proposition because good food is so expensive.  With the price of good food going up, where does that leave those in need?
Eventually, the market will adjust.  We will see a dip in produce that will likely last about 8 months or more before the demand levels off and other market forces come into play (small deals made, situational acceptance, etc.)
That is the economical.  What about the philosophical?  We have long lived without soy milk, coconut milk, and almond milk. We can stand to pay a little more for guacamole at Chipoltle.  What about everything else?  Are we ready to stop wasting food?  Are we ready to curb desire for things that we might not need?
As a grower are we prepared to turn away those in need who cannot afford the prices we are putting forward?
As growers, are we prepared to diversify our crops to account for a booming market?
For me, the answer to a lot of these questions is that," I don't know."  2017 is going to be an agile market if Trump is elected and he begins to work to repeal NAFTA and come down on undocumented workers.
The key to this post is to think about what this election means to you because your food and how it is produced is going to be a big very important!

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